The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its forecast for global economic growth in 2026, citing the impact of the war in the Middle East, rising inflation, and increasing geopolitical uncertainty.
According to its report released on Tuesday, the IMF expects the global economy to grow by 3.1% in 2026, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than its previous estimate.
The report noted that the global economy, which showed relative resilience to trade tensions last year, is now facing new challenges due to the war in the Middle East. It also projects growth to reach 3.2% in 2027.
The IMF outlined three possible scenarios for the global economic outlook depending on how the conflict evolves. Growth could slow to 2.5% in 2026 if the war persists and oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, while in a worst-case scenario, growth could drop to 2% if the conflict escalates further.
The report also indicated that global inflation could exceed 6% in the most pessimistic scenario, compared to about 4.4% in the baseline scenario, with risks of increasing inflationary pressures due to higher energy costs.
Regarding the U.S. economy, the IMF lowered its growth forecast for 2026 to 2.3%, down from 2.4% in its January estimates, while slightly raising its 2027 growth forecast to 2.1%, up from 2.0% previously.
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